BEIRUT // Sitting beside a three-tiered tray of biscuits and in front of the American and Qatari flags, US president Donald Trump told the world just weeks ago that Washington and Doha had an "extremely good" relationship and that he had discussed the sale of "lots of beautiful military equipment" to the monarchy.
It was predictable that the meeting with the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, should be cordial. Qatar hosts America's biggest and most important military base in the region, Al Udeid. The country's state-owned airline flies non-stop to ten US cities daily and top American universities such as Georgetown and Northwestern have opened campuses in Doha. The encounter between Sheikh Tamim and Mr Trump in Riyadh last month was a meeting between friends with long-standing common interests.
But then Mr Trump's tune changed abruptly.
"So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off," he wrote on Twitter on June 6 in reaction to the Saudi and Emirati-led campaign to isolate and punish Qatar. "They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!"
In another tweet he wrote: "During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar — look!"
But Mr Trump's about-turn belies something bigger. The Qatar crisis represents a new, complicated challenge for the US, one that will test its grasp of nuance in foreign policy and place the US in a precarious spot between multiple allies in the region and may even drive some further into Tehran's embrace. It is already exacerbating tensions in the Middle East over Iran.
It is still not clear whether Mr Trump's cheering of anti-Qatar actions is actual US policy. Both the state department and the Pentagon have underlined the strong relationship with Qatar in recent days and avoided endorsing the sanctions imposed against Doha. And despite accusing Qatar of funding extremism, Mr Trump offered on Wednesday to mediate between Qatar and other Gulf states.
Continued US backing for Qatar — despite Mr Trump's initial reaction — could cause tensions with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. But going against Qatar has implications for the stationing of US troops there. And if the rift with its Gulf neighbours drives Qatar towards Iran, Tehran will become an even more pressing concern than it already is for Washington.
So far, Doha has refused to back down, claiming it has enough supplies to withstand a 12-month blockade. And the presence of US and Turkish troops on Qatari soil could deter any potential military action.
But the crisis goes well beyond the Gulf and has implications for other US relationships in the region.
Turkey has already fast-tracked legislation to deploy more troops to Qatar, having already opened its first major overseas military base there last year. Turkish officials have already spoken of increasing troop numbers from 150 to 3,000.
Ankara has also indicated it will help get food and water to Qatar if needed.
For the US, Turkey's support of Qatar could further poison an already rancorous relationship between Washington and Ankara, which is furious over America's decision to back Kurdish forces in Syria and Washington's failure to hand over Fethullah Gulen, the exiled cleric whom Turkey blames for last year's attempted coup. Some Turkish officials have already hinted about barring the US from using Incirlik airbase, a critical facility in the air war against ISIL. Divisions over Qatar will be yet another irreconcilable difference between the two Nato allies.
Unlike Turkey, Qatar has not threatened to close down the American airbase at Al Udeid. However, the fact remains that Washington now has major issues with the two countries hosting its two most important military facilities serving the Middle East — bases that are key in the fight against ISIL, a regional foothold for the US and a restraint on Iranian aspirations of hegemony.
The Qatar crisis also means the brakes may be off regarding any regional conflict with Iran. The nations now standing against Qatar say Doha has sided with Iran, bringing what has been a cold war in the Gulf out into the open.
Meanwhile, Iran lost no time in also dishing out blame on Saudi Arabia after ISIL killed 17 people in twin attacks in Tehran on Wednesday.
While not connected to Qatar, the US is now also increasingly confronting Iran-backed groups in Syria. On Thursday, the US conducted its third air raid on pro-Syrian regime forces near a base hosting American special forces in south-eastern Syria. Earlier in the week, a Hizbollah media branch threatened attacks on US troops in Syria if Washington continued to cross "red lines". Hizbollah's Al Manar television station also broadcast footage of an Iranian drone tracking an American drone.
President Trump's initial tweets and U-turn on the Qatar crisis reveal more than his own thoughts. They make Washington's policy look murky, and malleable where it should be firm.
Meanwhile, the stakes keep getting higher.
jwood@thenational.ae
http://ift.tt/2s5Jg09
3Novices Europe
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