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3Novices:France's Francois Fillon emerges as new hope to keep far right at bay

Paris // Francois Fillon, having clinched the presidential nomination for the right-wing Republicans party, will now join a far bigger battle for the future of France, the European Union and mainstream politics in the West.

After Donald Trump's stunning victory in the United States, France's election next April and May has become a test for how far a rising tide of nationalist and populist politics will rise.

Polls show that Mr Fillon's biggest rival is the far-right Front National (FN) leader Marine Le Pen who sees herself as part of a spreading revolt against globalisation and the political elite.

Mr Fillon's backers in the Republicans party believe his hard-right positions on protecting French culture, fighting Islamic extremism and combating crime will help to neuter Ms Le Pen's appeal.

"When you enter someone else's house you do not take over," Mr Fillon said in a message to immigrants last week, a sign that he is not scared to adopt the nationalist language of his opponents.

His conservative social views and appeal to rural voters as a devout Catholic from provincial France might also shield him from charges of being an out-of-touch metropolitan liberal.

"It appears your imminent victory is worrying Marine Le Pen," Bruno Le Maire, a rival-turned-supporter in the Republicans party, boomed at Mr Fillon's final campaign rally in Paris last Friday.

Mr Le Maire, a former minister defeated in the first round of the Republicans primary, declared Ms Le Pen was right to be scared -- to cheers from the mostly white, middle-class crowd.

The stakes for France and Europe are high.

As well as a crackdown on immigration, Ms Le Pen has promised to pull her country out of the euro and organise a referendum on France's membership of the EU.

While Britain's planned departure from the union is a major blow, the withdrawal of France, a founding member, could deliver the European project a coup de grace.

The FN under Ms Le Pen has worked hard to try to shed the party's racist image and hopes to capitalise on economic gloom and concern about Europe's biggest migrant crisis since the Second World War.

In the north-eastern Parisian suburb of Raincy, a group of FN activists buoyed by Mr Trump's victory and the Brexit vote gathered on Sunday morning to hand out leaflets.

Local councillor Jordan Bardella recited the attack lines on Mr Fillon that are likely to be at the core of the FN's pitch.

Firstly, he argued that Mr Fillon's time as prime minister from 2007-2012 and various ministerial roles meant he was the sort of discredited establishment face that angry voters are keen to reject.

"He symbolises the past and I think French people want to turn the page," said Mr Bardella, 21 and a rising figure in the FN.

Second, Mr Fillon's programme "is unprecedented in its violence. It's a real attempt to smash the social system", he said.

Mr Fillon has vowed to cut 500,000 public sector jobs, scrap the 35-hour working week, and introduce cuts to social security and health care to reduce France's chronic over-spending.

The 62-year-old, who grew up in a chateau near the town of Le Mans, has also expressed admiration for the former British leader Margaret Thatcher, an advocate of globalisation, deregulation and free markets.

"Today the world is going totally in the opposite direction," FN vice president Florian Philippot said. "For me, Fillon is Thatcher but 30 years too late."

Two polls published on Sunday evening forecast that Mr Fillon would face and beat Ms Le Pen in a presidential run-off vote in May.

This would be a re-run of the 2002 election when Ms Le Pen's father Jean-Marie made it into the second round against the right-wing candidate Jacques Chirac.

Voters on the centre-right and left united in a so-called "Republican front" to keep Mr Le Pen out.

This pattern was repeated in regional elections in France last December when centrist voters came together to prevent the FN winning a single council despite a strong showing in the first round.

Mr Fillon's defeated rival Alain Juppe had argued that his programme of more gradual reform and less traditional views on abortion or gay rights would make him more palatable to leftist voters.

Jean-Yves Camus, an author and expert on the far-right in Europe, said the election remained highly uncertain, with the Socialist party yet to nominate its candidate and the role of independents still unclear.

He said the attack on Mr Fillon's economic programme would be the FN's most effective line, particularly among the sort of working class voters who helped propel Mr Trump to the White House.

"At the end of the day, I still think the 'Republican front' will work," he said. "I don't see French people making Marine Le Pen president of the Republic."

* Agence France-Presse



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