BEIRUT // When Turkey intervened militarily in Syria last month, its mission seemed narrow: to clear ISIL from the border area and force Kurdish YPG forces that had crossed west of the Euphrates River to return to the east bank.
With ISIL driven from the border in relatively quick fashion and with US assurances that its YPG allies had indeed withdrawn east of the Euphrates, Turkey seemed to have largely achieved its goals.
But now the scope of Operation Inherent Resolve appears to be widening. Turkey is eager to take part in the fight for Raqqa, ISIL's self-declared capital in Syria, while also now confronting YPG forces in Afrin, a Kurdish-majority area north-west of Aleppo. By deepening its role in Syria and displaying a willingness to expand the operation's geographic footprint, Turkey risks escalating conflict with Kurdish forces in Syria, chafing relations with its American ally and getting further bogged down in a complicated civil war.
On Tuesday, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he and US president Barack Obama were seeking to work together to push ISIL out of Raqqa. But like Turkey's fight for Jarabulus and towns on the Syrian border, the battle for Raqqa carries more significance for Mr Erdogan than the removal of ISIL. It is also about limiting the gains of the YPG, which Turkey considers to be an arm of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and expanding Turkey's influence in Syria.
"Raqqa is one of the issues the US and Turkey are currently discussing. We need to demonstrate our presence in the region. If not, the terrorist groups such as Daesh, the PKK and the Syrian offshoot the People's Protection Units [YPG] will occupy the vacuum," he said, according to the pro-government Daily Sabah newspaper.
On Thursday, Turkey's defence minister said the YPG should not be allowed to lead any operation on Raqqa and that local forces should be used instead. He added that Turkey would not tolerate the YPG extending their territory "by using the Daesh operations as an excuse".
Any on-the-ground involvement in the push for Raqqa by Turkey would bring its forces on to a battlefield that the YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have long been contesting. The move could also see Turkey's troops, along with the rebel groups it supports, passing through or near areas which Syrian Kurds regard as their heartland.
Given Turkey's hostility toward the YPG, it is difficult to imagine a Turkish push on Raqqa without a significant amount of fighting against Kurdish forces. With concerns about the presence of Kurdish forces on the majority of their 911-kilometre frontier with Syria still very much to the fore, coupled with eagerness to stifle the possibility of a Kurdish state in Syria, Ankara could use the excuse of coalition-supported anti-ISIL operations around Raqqa to attack the areas of north-eastern Syria where the YPG is strongest.
Turkey has already given indications that the withdrawal of YPG forces from Arab-majority areas west of the Euphrates River is not enough.
On Thursday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported Turkish cross-border artillery strikes on Afrin that killed six YPG fighters. Turkish media said a Turkish border post had come under attack by YPG fighters. After the incident, videos posted on social media purported to show convoys of Turkish artillery deploying to the border with Afrin.
While YPG forces targeted earlier in Turkey's operation were in recently captured Arab-majority areas, Afrin is a Kurdish-majority region of Syria that has been long been held by the YPG.
The continued hostilities between the YPG and Turkey place the US in a diplomatic and strategic minefield as it tries to placate both of its key allies in the fight against ISIL. Turkey continues to make life awkward for the US by, on the one hand, eagerly endorsing an offensive on Raqqa and requesting US backing for a no-fly zone to assist forces backed by Turkey, and on the other insisting that Turkish operations against ISIL and anti-YPG operations are one and the same. Tensions between the two allies have been high and could worsen if Turkey continues to use the pretext of countering ISIL to also move against Kurdish forces.
Despite Turkey's insistence on sidelining the YPG in the Raqqa offensive, on Thursday evening the US spokesman for the anti-ISIL coalition tweeted that the United States was working with both Turkey and the YPG-led SDF to come up with a "game plan" for Raqqa.
There could be even deeper trouble looming, depending on how much control Turkey is able to exert over its rebel proxies.
For the moment, those rebel proxies are willing to fight the battles Turkey wants to wage against the YPG and against ISIL. But for many rebels, the goal remains to unseat the government of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad.
Turkey's intervention has seemingly been made possible by a tacit deal with the Russians after the two countries recently reconciled. It appears that Russia, an Assad ally, is willing to tolerate rebel gains and Turkish strikes - even against the YPG, which has Moscow's backing.
But as Turkey emboldens rebels north of Aleppo and opens the possibility of further clashes with YPG forces in Afrin, Ankara risks eventually bringing its proxy forces closer to territory held by the Syrian government. While the parameters of the murky agreement between Russia and Turkey are not clear, attacks on government forces around Aleppo would presumably be a well defined red line that would be met with blowback.
Rebel fighters, however, might eventually become more interested in fighting their primary enemy than fighting the battles that Turkey wants them to fight.
jwood@thenational.ae
* With additional reporting from Reuters
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