President Barack Obama wasted no time delivering a sting to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the latter’s disastrous election results.
Speaking at the G7 summit in Germany, Mr Obama criticised Turkey for not doing enough to stem the flow of foreign fighters into Syria and Iraq, stating that “a lot of it is preventable”. He pointed at Turkish authorities as having “not fully ramped up the capacity they need” to stop extremists entering Syria via its 822-km border.
US disagreements with Mr Erdogan’s approach to Syria are not limited to the flow of foreign fighters. Washington has refused to back Mr Erdogan’s ambitious goal for a no-fly zone above rebel-held areas in northern Syria.
The US has also expressed alarm at Turkey’s apparent support for the new hardline rebel alliance, the Army of Conquest, which includes Al Qaeda’s Syria affiliate, Jabhat Al Nusra.
It is unclear, however how much Turkey’s election result will change its approach to Syria and its relationships with the various rebel groups.
Voice of America quoted a senior US official last month as saying that no-fly zones and safe zones were “not happening”. A State Department official reiterated that position to The National, that “the creation and enforcement of no-fly zones and other military-enforced zones present significant challenges”.
Yezid Sayigh, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, expects no change in US policy on the matter while Mr Obama is in office. “A new US administration after Obama leaves office may be more willing, but I don’t think we’ll see a US shift on this till then,” he said.
Washington also appears to be holding its line on Turkish support for the Army of Conquest.
The rebel coalition’s recent impressive gains, including capturing northern provincial cities Idlib, Jisr Al Shughour and Ariha, were widely reported to have been supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Shortly after the victories, Jabhat Al Nusra’s leader Abu Mohammed Al Golani appeared in a televised interview with Al Jazeera aiming to placate Western concerns of the Al Qaeda franchise. The US, however, remains unconvinced.
“Our position on Al Nusra Front has not changed – it is Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria and a designated Foreign Terrorist Organisation,” the State Department official said, adding that the US is determined to support only moderate opposition forces.
The Army of Conquest is not a moderate force, according to the official, who labelled external – chiefly Turkey’s – coordination with radical groups such as Nusra as “problematic”. That position appeared vindicated when reports emerged on June 11 that Nusra had slain 20 villagers in Idlib belonging to the minority Druze community.
Veteran Turkish journalist, Cengiz Candar, believes AKP’s electoral loss will encourage the US “to apply pressure on AKP’s support to Jabhat Al Nusra and the Army of Conquest”.
Mr Sayigh, however, said there is little evidence the US has applied any pressure on its regional allies concerning their support for the hardline coalition.
“I also think there is some leeway for each power to pursue approaches that are not fully in line with the others. That’s natural in any coalition, and since the US is not taking the lead it has less control,” he said.
The AKP lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 13 years and a pro-Kurdish and liberal HDP won 13 per cent of the vote. Mr Erdogan is expected to ask the leader of his AKP, Ahmet Davutoglu, to try to form a coalition government, but opposition parties say they should be forming the next government.
Should Washington see Turkey’s election results as an opportunity to press Mr Erdogan on his support for extremist rebels in Syria, it will find local support.
“The victors of the elections, the HDP and the main opposition CHP, have voiced their dissent to AKP’s Syria policy,” Mr Candar said, adding, “It will be very difficult for the AKP to sustain its policy of support to those elements in Syria.”
The presence of a pro-Kurdish bloc in Turkey’s parliament will propel the Kurdish question as a priority issue in Ankara, overshadowing the Syrian conflict, Mr Sayigh said. “The elections will make it much harder for an AKP government to escalate in Syria ... its main foreign or domestic policy issue is likely to be the Kurdish question,” he said.
Mr Sayigh said Turkey’s new political reality may constrain its support for hardline militants in Syria, but “certainly not end it”.
The result on the northern Syrian battlefield may be a stall in rebel advances, Mr Candar believes, but do not expect renewed momentum in Turkey to seek a peace deal with President Bashar Al Assad.
The dramatic political developments in Turkey came only days after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards chief Qassem Suleimani promised a surprise in Syria, as Iran and the Assad regime prepare a counter-offensive in Idlib to reverse rebel gains.
No doubt Tehran and Damascus will be encouraged by the weakening of Mr Erdogan, raising expectations for a heated battle in Syria’s north.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
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